We have lived enough IT history to know that reality has exceeded Moore’s Law prediction of computers doubling capacity every 18 months. In fact, the period is now close to 12 months.
Following this exponential growth these are the specs for a $1500 Laptop in 2018, and some accessories:
- Microprocessor number of Cores: 256 Cores 1.9 Teraflops
- RAM: 500 Gigabytes
- Solid-State HD: 32 Terabytes
- Flash memory cards (SD-HC, Compact): 16 Terabytes
- Wifi: 1 Gbps
- Broadband: 8 Gbps
- External NAS: 1 Petabyte
- iPod 5G: 8TB at $199, 16TB (3.5 million songs) at $299
With the advances in nanotechnology applied to solar photovoltaics cells and more efficient batteries, laptops will be solar powered, and will not need to connect to the power grid with a normal use. The OS user interface will be based in Motion-Sensing Gesture and Speech Recognition.
IBM Supercomputer Roadrunner was recently news for breaking the one Petaflop proccessing power mark. At the current pace, probably with a microprocessor based in nanostructures and fotonic technology, a laptop in 2028 will have the same processing power.
The question is, what use will we give to such powerful machines?
Reference: Ray Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns.
Note: Projection for number of cores assumes 18 months to double capacity, since multiple core technology is relatively new. Flash memory, broadband bandwith and iPod projections follow the pace of 12 month experienced in recent years.